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Date and Issue: September 20, 1984.
The 1984-'85 network television season, which officially gets under way this week, will rely heavily on glamour and sheer star power to attract viewers.
It will be a season that takes few risks creatively and breaks little, if any, new ground in programing. But, perhaps inspired by the ratings success of ABC's "Dynasty," it will bring back high-voltage romance and sizzle.
"It's big casting, bringing back the stars and borrowing ideas from daytime soaps," says Paul Isacsson, Young & Rubicam's executive vice president and director of broadcast programing and purchasing.
Underlying all the glamour are some sound business decisions.
Mr. Isacsson explains: "The new schedules reflect an attention to keel- g a lid on costs. Part of the reasoning this season is that you can't go with unknowns."
In other words, how better to improve ratings prospects than by loading up new series with easily identifiable stars?
Stars coming out this fall include Morgan Fairchild, Morgan Brittany, Lindsay Wagner, Loni Anderson. Lynda Carter and such glamorous standbys as Linda Evans and Joan Collins.
With stars such as these on call, it's no coincidence that observers view the new season as a "safe" one, almost totally devoid of risky new ideas.
"There are no experiments, good or bad," says Mr. Isacsson. "Last year, we had 'Square Pegs,' 'Manimal' and 'Mr. Smith."
Obviously all of those shows were flawed, resulting in their brief stay on the schedule.
But the point the Y&R executive makes is that at least all three suggested a hint of fresh thinking, however poorly executed.
To the extent that there is a new development this year, it's in the trendy use of music video techniques in series television.
For instance. NBC's new drama "Miami Vice" will feature a number of pop hits each week.
And CBS' "Dreams" is built around the adventures of a rock 'n' roll band struggling to make it in the music business.
Also notable this year are two longrange developments: The diminishing use of half-hour sitcoms and a marked increase in action melodramas with comedic overtones.
Nearly 20 hours of police/detective/vigilante dramas fill the primetime schedule this season.
And as always, many of the new series are designed around strong characters who appeal strongly to the allimportant female viewer.
"The most important element in establishing long-term TV hits is developing characters that capture the imagination," says Dave Poltrack, vice president of research for the CBS/Broadcast Group.
Despite the fact that more than 70 percent of the new prime-time programs are destined to fail, advertisers haven't been shy about pouring money in.
It's estimated the Big 3 have garnered some $2.2 billion in up-front sales so far, selling off more than 60 percent of their available fall inventory. The networks were able to hike the average commercial cost only about 8 percent for the new season.
That's not much more than an inflationary goose for an industry that in years past has routinely raised prices from 15 percent to 20 percent.
One programing segment that's attracting an ever-growing percentage of those ad dollars is miniseries.
At this early juncture in the new season, the networks have some 100 hours of miniseries scheduled. Depending on production-and whether a particular network needs a late-season burst of hype and excitementthe number of hours devoted to miniseries could climb.
Most network mavens think CBS has the portfolio of miniseries with the greatest potential.
Included among the 40 hours are such projects as the 13-hour "Space," as well as "Robert Kennedy and His Times" and "Mistral's Daughter," which kicks off the new fall season for CBS.
This is a bit unusual, since ABC traditionally is the miniseries network, laying claim to 11 of the top 20 miniseries of all time. In fact, of the top 10, ABC claims eight.
According to the ad dollars shifting into them recently, miniseries have become the darling of the advertiser.
These grand and sweeping events unite the nation in front of the TV set. Observes one network executive, "People take TV for granted. They're used to seeing series programing week after week, so they forget TV can also be exciting, special. Miniseries remind them."
Advertisers like to be associcated with miniseries because they create a comfortable and often lavish environment for commercialsand they sometimes produce huge ratings.
Miniseries producers also make liberal use of well-known stars, observing one of the main tenets of series television this season: Give the public the famous faces they like to see.
When this season ends next April-and it will probably happen in a blaze of glory with CBS airing its epic "Space"-it could well be that CBS' margin of victory in household ratings is the result of its miniseries firepower.
Ad agency executives involved in buying network TV seem fairly unanimous in projecting CBS the household ratings winner with an estimated 15.3 average rating (percentage of TV households).
The real news, say the prognosticators, is that ABC and NBC will wage a fierce battle for second and third place, with the nod finally going to ABC with a projected 14.6 rating.
NBC should finish no more than two-tenths of a point behind ABC.
Breaking the season down demographically, however, ABC, based on ad agency projections, should end up the ratings leader in both key female breakouts, ages 18 to 49 and 25 to 54.
In both instances NBC runs second, barely edging out CBS.
As for male demographics, NBC seems the choice in the two key breakouts, with ABC running second. CBS runs a very close third.
Having different leaders by demographic categories nicely illustrates one truism about network TV that's sometimes overlooked: There are no real losers.
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